Obama is supposed to be part of a “space conference” in Florida on April 15th to discuss his new space plan. The White House new release stated that “the conference will focus on the goals and strategies in this new vision, the next steps, and the new technologies, new jobs, and new industries it will create.”
I really hope that the president clarifies this nonvision (as I called it in my previous post) and gives it a destination with a timeline. I would love for the President to be bold and commit us to Mars by 2020. It’s completely possible; we can do it with today’s technology (via the Mars Direct plan). I do agree though, that it would be nice to have a faster and more efficient form of propulsion, most notably, the Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket, or VASIMR. I like the idea of getting to Mars in 40 days, spending 100 days or, so on, the surface, and 40 days back. Some people don’t think that VASIMR could be developed in time, for it would also require development, for a Mars mission anyways, a nuclear reactor in space (we have done that before, in 1965, but on a much smaller scale required for Mars), but there is a company that is only a year or two so away from testing their very own VASIMR engine on the ISS. They are called the Ad Astra Rocket Company (http://www.adastrarocket.com/aarc/). It’s quite amazing what they have done so far.
Here’s what I think. This also goes back to how I think NASA should conduct its business (as described in the previous post). What If Obama were to announce Humans to Mars by 2020 and do it like we did Apollo. By like Apollo, I mean we started with the already functioning Mercury, then Gemini programs before we started going to the Moon.
Our Mercury Program of today would be the ISS program. Use it as a test bed in the next 3-5 years for the new propulsion, life support and other new technologies required to go to Mars. We would also use this time to fund commercial rockets to get us to ISS. We could contract Ad Astra for the VASIMR test program too.
Our Modern Gemini Program would be a NEO program, say 2015-2018. After the basic technology was developed, we could test it at Lagrange points and NEO Asteroids. This would test our deep space activities, life support, etc. The Lagrange points of the Earth-Moon system seem to me like a reasonable first step, since it’s close to home, and we could have a chemical backup in case something went wrong. After that we would move beyond the Earth-Moon System.
All of this would be done while the Bigger Mars Program was being developed. Just like the Apollo days, the Saturn V, LM, CSM, etc., were being developed and tested, even while Mercury and Gemini were being flown. It would be the same here. Once our NEO program wrapped up, we could then do the bold thing of going to the Mars system. We would not land the first time. We could use our skills already developed to explore the Martian moons. Then after doing that we would test (unmanned) the reentry of a large object into the Martian atmosphere, it could be a prototype of an In-situ resource Utilization module, testing the transformation of the Martian Atmosphere into fuel for launch back to Orbit, and Oxygen and Water for the crew.
After all of these things are completed and tested with proficiency, then we could begin the first manned mission to Mars. We would do it similar to the Mars Direct path. The first mission in 2018 or 2020 would be unmanned and only be the Mars Ascent Vehicle. In 2020 or 2022 (depending on when the mission was started), we would send the crew in their Habitat Module using a VASIMR Rocket.
This to me seems like a great way to turn the current nonvision into a Bold Kennedy-esk vision. All we need is Leadership, and the will. While the world is focusing on LEO and the Moon, the United States (and partners) can focus on the Planet that has been literally staring us in the face for the past 30 years.
Honestly, I love your enthusiasm but I would be very surprised if that happens. Nobody is going to Mars in the next twenty years. Simply put it’s not a political priority for any country at the moment. The Apollo program was sadly more about occupying the higher frontier and beating the Russians than it was about adventure. Nationalistic attitudes and an early sense wonder about human spaceflight put us on the moon.
We will only go to Mars when our technological competency is such that the cost is dramatically reduced, and the chance of success very high. As a rule, people do not vote on the basis of Space Policy. However, they do vote on large budget deficits in government programs. Cost projections on a manned mission vary widely from anywhere between $20 billion to $400 billion. Economies worldwide are still reeling from the recession, which combined with many other political concerns in 2010 make a manned mission to Mars alas still a dream.